Stinkynomics: Del Brownman is Fried

The Kavorka is in the middle of a FTX-style crash, everyone should have seen it coming but only the Commissioner knew about the fraudulence.

AT WHAT AM I LOOKING?

· Quick refresher…top table is points scored by week. Green highlight means it was a win, red a loss. Total points scored / average points scored per week / standard deviation of points scored (higher = more widely varying point output).

· Bottom table…what was the chance of winning that week based on how many points I scored compared to everyone else in the league (not just who you played in that particular week)? Expected wins sums all the percentages, then compare that to actual wins. Positive Luck Factor = have more wins this year than you “should,” negative Luck Factor = have fewer wins this year than you “should.”

THE BIG PICTURE

· Luck is playing a lot less of a factor this season than in years past when we’ve seen teams with 2+ more wins (or fewer losses) than they should have based on their weekly point outputs. For reference, my luck factor was 2.4 through 10 weeks last year. In 2022, you basically are what your record says you are. Not a ton of frauds, not a ton of teams getting hosed.

HE IS WHO HE SAYS HE IS

· That being said… I commend The Commish. He’s known all year that his team is fraudulent, and he’s taken constant crap about deflating his power rankings despite his vanity place in the standings. The shine is wearing off and this team’s rotten core is finally getting exposed. Can he limp into the playoffs where it’s anyone’s game? His last few weeks have unraveled faster than FTX.

START ETCHING THE TROPHY

· Honestly Bo is right, he is putting together a historic season. Looking back at prior seasons of my proprietary (not really) analysis, it’s been since Randy in 2018 since a team has had a greater than 50% chance of winning every single week based on their point output, though Boner in 2020 was awfully close. Don’t read too much into that 1.4 luck factor – that always happens for teams at the top of the table. This team is really good, really consistent (third lowest standard deviation of point output), and this season’s basically over at this point.

THE REAL DARKHORSE

· My team to watch that’s coming from off the radar is Billy. This squad can put up 500+ every week. Tua is a beast, potential to be QB1 from here on out. One word of caution: it would behoove Billy to run the table in the family division and backdoor his way into a bye – that potential first round playoffs match-up with Tua playing in Buffalo has to be concerning. Those candy ass uniforms don’t travel north in December.

PRIMED FOR A REPEAT?

· The King has backed up one hell of an impressive season last year. After a yo-yo start to the season, he’s rattled off 5 straight and putting up numbies. The Week 13 rematch of the 2021 Championship looms large…